• In-fighting in Kano, the ascendancy of Bafarawa in Sokoto and Shinkafi in Zamfara may dent Buhari’s northern run
PROLOGUE
Nigeria Decides… In a Rematch, It’s a Choice Between Jonathan and Buhari
Thisday Report
Today, Nigerians will head to the polls to elect the man they want to steer the ship of state for the next four years. Whoever wins would become President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy and most populous nation.
Since independence in 1960, this weekend’s presidential election will be the eighth attempt by Nigerians to elect a chief executive.
However, the historical significance of this election will not be lost on several Nigerians, as this will be the first contest in which the incumbent president will be facing a strong and vibrant opposition ready to grab the reins from his grasp.
In the contest, there are actually 14 candidates who shall be vying for the post of president. But in reality, it will be a straight contest between the two main contenders – Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) and Major-General Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Fifty-seven-year-old Jonathan, a Christian from the South, who holds a doctoral degree in Zoology, is the incumbent president. He became president in May 2010 following the incapacitation and eventual death of his boss, President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua. Shortly after becoming president, the soft-spoken Jonathan promised to continue with his predecessor’s seven-point agenda, which he re-christened the Transformation Agenda, his administration’s capsule for delivering programmes and key priority projects.
Jonathan also pledged electoral and constitutional reforms. On both promises, even his critics would agree he has delivered. For the first time in Nigeria’s history, biometrics was deployed to capture voter data in 2011 and would be used again in the 2015 polls.
Last year, the Jonathan administration also successfully convened a National Conference. The report was recently endorsed by the Federal Executive Council (FEC) for onward delivery to the National Assembly.
Jonathan could also take credit for overseeing the successful reform and privatisation of the electricity sector, as well as the construction of 10 new thermal power stations under the National Integrated Power Project (NIPP). But having concluded the privatisation of companies created from the unbundling of the defunct electricity utility, Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN), he took his finger off the pulse by not ensuring that the transmission network and gas supply infrastructure was moving in lock-step with the power reform programme. The result is that towns and cities in the country continue to suffer from debilitating power outages that impede the country’s march towards development.
In other areas of infrastructure development, there is no doubt that the Jonathan administration has been hamstrung by competing needs and limited resources to execute several road, airport, railway and port projects. Despite the challenges, his administration takes pride in the number of highways it has built across the country, the airport rehabilitation projects and revamp of thousands of kilometres of railway lines in some sections of the country.
But if there is one sector Jonathan takes particular pride in, it is agriculture. Indeed, agriculture under his administration has witnessed considerable progress and created thousands of jobs for youths and the unemployed in rural areas. With the reforms undertaken in the fertiliser distribution scheme, farmers now have direct access to fertiliser at cheaper prices, which has led to an exponential increase in food output, particularly rice production. This in turn, has increased agriculture productivity and reduced the country’s import bill by several billions of naira annually.
Owing to the success of his reforms, Nigeria, under Jonathan, has attracted billions of foreign direct investment in various sectors of the economy.
But whilst Jonathan has recorded some measure of success in key areas of the economy, he has been soft and ineffective on security and corruption. More than anything else, his misreading and mishandling of the Boko Haram insurgency in the North-east, helped to erode the crest of popularity on which he rode when he won the 2011 presidential election.
Not even the outrage that followed the abduction of over 200 schoolgirls in Chibok, Borno State, by the insurgents could arouse the president into taking decisive action against the dreaded sect. It was not until the terror group started grabbing territories and he was starring electoral defeat in the face before he awoke from his slumber.
In a recent interview, the president admitted that he had underestimated Boko Haram. There is no gain saying that this has turned out to be one grave error of judgment. The military has however made considerable gains in the last one month, pushing back the insurgents from occupied communities.
Aside from the insurgency, Jonathan has been slow and indecisive in taking action against graft in his administration. Since the massive subsidy scam was unearthed two years ago, none of the parties indicted for subsidy fraud has been successfully prosecuted. In the same vein, he has shielded and turned a blind eye to members of his cabinet suspected of corruption.
Under his watch, and despite the Amnesty Programme for militants from the Niger Delta, oil theft and oil infrastructure vandalism have continued to thrive and cost the country billions of dollars in oil revenue to the extent that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) was unable to build foreign reserves that could have shielded the economy from exogenous shocks when oil prices started to fall.
Given the mixed grill that his stewardship has thrown up, Jonathan would have to dig deep to overcome the challenge from his closest rival in the contest, Buhari. But with incumbency, widespread political structures, and a much deeper war chest at his disposal, Jonathan just may confound his critics by pulling off a win for another four years in office.
For the 72-year-old APC candidate, Buhari, a Muslim from the North, Saturday’s election would be his fourth shot at the presidency, having vied for the position in 2003, 2007 and 2011. Ironically, Buhari’s latest attempt is coming 31 years after he toppled the civilian administration of President Shehu Shagari.
As military head of state, Buhari cut the image of a no-nonsense general with a zero-tolerance for corruption. Quickly, Buhari herded scores of politicians into prison, even as he launched the “War Against Indiscipline”. Civil servants who could not recite the national anthem were publicly humiliated. Essentially, Buhari, in his 19 months as a dictator, reduced Nigeria’s multidimensional problems to indiscipline and corruption.
Out of government, Buhari has acquired a cult-like following, particularly in the north. To date, many consider him one of the least corrupt public figures in the country. Owing to his military background, he is also considered strong in the area of security. This fact came to the fore in the heat of the recent controversy over the retired general’s school certificate.
Several supporters of the retired general said it did not matter whether or not Buhari had the relevant certificates. Call it “Buharism”.
For this contest, Buhari has gone through a transformation of sorts. In order to reach across the fault line that divides northern and southern Nigeria, he has been forced to adorn western and traditional clothes unique to all the regions in the country. He has also repeatedly been seen attending church services to shake off the perception that he is a Muslim fanatic.
But the superficial transformation notwithstanding, Buhari has not been able to shake off the fact that he appears to be stuck in a time warp and is very weak on the economy. He has made promises that have forced many to question his grasp of the issues needed to run a modern society and effectively manage the Nigerian economy. His refusal to face Jonathan in a debate could not have helped his cause either.
Irrespective of his shortcomings, there is no doubt that Jonathan’s missteps and ineffectiveness in the areas of corruption and security have given Buhari his closest shot at the presidency. He can count on his unshakeable popularity in the North-west and North-east to garner a majority of the votes in both regions. But the deciding zone will be South-west. Can his running mate, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, backed by a leader of his party, Bola Tinubu, deliver the much needed battleground states in the zone?
As things stand, Jonathan and Buhari have capitalised on the shift in election dates to reach out to people who might have escaped them during the whirlwind campaign stomps in January and early February. Buhari made inroads into the South-east and South-south, considered Jonathan’s traditional support base. But Jonathan hasn’t left anything to chance. The president has deployed extraordinary resources to win votes in the South-west, North-east and North-central zones.
All said, whoever emerges president at the end of voting tomorrow would have, literary speaking, passed through the crucible. As one analyst put it, after March 28, never again will presidential elections in Nigeria be the same. Never!
How the States Will Vote
Even though there are 14 presidential candidates contesting tomorrow’s presidential election, the presidential election is a contest between President Goodluck Jonathan who epitomises Continuity and Major-General Muhammadu Buhari who symbolises Change. Incidentally, both candidates met head-to-head in the 2011 presidential election. In this report on the rematch, THISDAY correspondents preview the upcoming presidential contest showing how the two candidates stand and the likely voting pattern in each of the 36 states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory
SOUTH-SOUTH
Akwa Ibom Will Deliver for Jonathan
Because PDP has been in power in the state since 1999, Akwa Ibom State could best be described as a PDP stronghold. The state governor, Chief Godswill Akpabio, has not left anybody in doubt of his determination to ensure the state remains a PDP state. Apart from the fact that he is the chairman of the PDP Governors’ Forum, he is also a key figure in the president’s re-election mobilisation team.
Though the governorship primaries of the PDP in the state led to the defection of some of its leaders and their alignment with APC, Akwa Ibom remains a solidly PDP state. The view is that the loss of members suffered by the PDP and the gains recorded by the hitherto non-existent APC may only have a minimal impact on legislative elections, but not on the presidential election.
Like every other South-south state, Jonathan is expected to have an easy ride in Akwa Ibom being a son of the zone.
The prevailing sentiment in the state is that the South-south deserves to be at the helm for two terms of eight years just as enjoyed by the South-west under former President Olusegun Obasanjo.
Verdict: Jonathan will win
In Bayelsa, It’s a Shoo-in for the Homeboy
The presidential election in Bayelsa State is going to be a one-horse race. Thanks to the sentiments of the state having as its son the presidential candidate of the PDP, President Jonathan.
This is not to say that the candidate of the opposition APC, General Buhari is not popular here. Far from it, it is just the fact that he is facing a son of the soil and the people are most certainly going to vote en masse for one of their own.
Before the emergence of APC, Bayelsa was one of the states in the federation where the opposition was non-existent, a situation which made the ruling PDP the lone Iroko tree in the political firmament of the state. In fact, the only opposition in the state came from within the party.
But all that has changed, no thanks to former Governor Timipre Sylva who moved from the PDP to the APC, a situation which has led to a political realignment in the state.
The APC riding on the popularity of the former governor had a rousing and tumultuous rally when Buhari came calling in February.
However, that euphoria has all faded away, as the postponement of the elections has eroded the political gains of the APC in the state.
Despite this, the APC is expected to make some gains, as the ruling party has been bedevilled by internal wrangling between the supporters of the state governor, Seriake Dickson, and that of the First Lady, Mrs. Patience Jonathan. The infighting notwithstanding, the electorate in Bayelsa is expected to vote overwhelmingly for Jonathan.
Verdict: Jonathan will win
In Cross River, Jonathan Will Ride Rough Shod
When Jonathan campaigned at the U.J. Esuene Stadium on January 30, Governor Liyel Imoke said the president didn’t need to come to the state to campaign because the place was his stronghold where the electorate would always vote massively for him.
Jonathan also indicated that if not for the sake of courtesy, he would have taken Cross River for granted by not visiting it to campaign because he was sure of the people’s support for his second term bid. Imoke and Jonathan were absolutely correct.
Cross River is in the South-south region where ethnic and religious sentiments form the basis for which most of the potential voters will cast their votes for either Jonathan or Buhari. Given these sentiments, which are usually advanced in public discourse by the electorate in the state, it is incontrovertible that Jonathan will win here by a very wide margin. Aside from these considerations, facts on ground indicate that most of the undecided voters who would not be influenced by religious and ethnic sentiments might vote for Jonathan because the PDP seems to be the only party campaigning for their presidential candidate.
The APC, its leadership and members are simply not campaigning for Buhari. If at all, the party is campaigning for Buhari, the general impression across the state is that the campaigns are not visible, not heard and not felt.
Verdict: Jonathan will win
Jonathan Has Delta in the Bag
The towering popularity of Jonathan in Delta State does not come as a surprise because the people do not only see him as their own, the president has also visited the state three times this year to drum up support for his reelection bid. Jonathan’s first visit was for a campaign rally, and later to witness his endorsement by the Arewa Initiative for Peaceful Co-existence (AIPC) in Southern Nigeria. He has also paid an unscheduled visit to the Olu of Warri during which knotty issues in the Niger Delta that were likely going to affect his re-election bid were addressed.
Apart from coming from the South-south, his achievements in the areas of road construction, education and the proposed N16 billion gas city project, have endeared him to the people of the state. Equally important is the strong structure of PDP in the state as it boasts 95 per cent representation at the local government level and in the legislature.
He has received a plethora of endorsements from across the three senatorial districts of the state, with different political groups and several opposition political parties, and even traditional rulers endorsing his re-election.
On the other hand, Buhari has not made any significant inroads in the state, as APC is barely visible in Delta. In fact, his visit to the state was brief shuttling between Warri – where he visited the Olu of Warri, Ogiame Atuwase II, in his palace – and Asaba where he spent a few hours with party loyalists.
Verdict: Jonathan will win
The S’South Sentiment in Edo Will Prevail With a Strong Buhari Showing
Like all other South-south states, Edo would have been expected to be a safe state for Jonathan, but this is not so. APC and PDP are formidable in Edo and this is because of the calibre of people behind the two parties. While the APC is being backed by Governor Adams Oshiomhhole and the party’s national chairman, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, the PDP parades the likes of PDP BoT Chairman, Tony Anenih; Works Minister Mike Onolememen; business mogul Hosa Okunbor; Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu; and Coordinator, President Jonathan Campaign for Edo State, Chief Tom Ikimi.
Although in 2011, President Jonathan won the state due largely to the son of the zone sentiment, a lot has changed since APC came into power seven years ago, during which it has been able to transform the state in terms of infrastructure development.
But Jonathan’s supporters would also point to numerous projects like the rehabilitation of the Benin-Ohosun-Ore axis of the Benin-Ore-Sagamu dual carriageway; the ongoing dualisation of Benin-Auchi-Okene federal highway; the approval for the establishment of another Federal Government Girls’ College at Ehor in Uhunmwode LGA; the construction of NPDC headquarters in Benin City; the establishment of Institute of Construction Technology, Uromi, Esan Northeast as some his achievements.
Verdict: It will be a tough, but Jonathan will win.
Rivers: Grassroots Sentiments Remain With Jonathan
The battle for Rivers State could be described as a Battle of Two Egos – One in the person of the outwardly quiet, but lethal President Jonathan, and the other in the emotional and needlessly loquacious Governor Chibuike Amaechi. Their struggle for supremacy in the state led by the president’s wife, Patience Jonathan, has seen several clashes and turned Rivers into the most volatile state during the election season.
Accordingly, as the presidential election loomed, both Jonathan and Buhari intensified their campaigns in Rivers. While Amaechi spearheaded Buhari’s campaign, former Minister of State for Education and PDP’s gubernatorial candidate, Chief Nyesom Wike, alongside the first lady, have led the charge for Jonathan.
However, Jonathan appears to be maintaining the lead in Rivers State despite the fact that Amaechi is the Director General of Buhari’s campaign organisation.
Factors working in favour of Jonathan in Rivers State include the fact that he is an Ijaw, one of the prominent ethnic nationalities in the state. His wife is also from Okrika, an Ijaw community in the state. The people therefore see him as their son and son-in-law who should be protected and promoted. These factors overshadow other considerations, as even some members of the APC are likely to vote for Jonathan in the presidential election.
Another sentiment working in favour of Jonathan is the feelings among the people that he is being vilified because he is from a minority ethnic group, the South-south. This aside, Rivers State has traditionally been a PDP state before the implosion that forced Amaechi to quit the party with his political structures in 2012.
While Amaechi’s defection changed PDP to the opposition party in the state and the governor’s popularity put the pressure on his former party, PDP appears to have weathered the storm and regained part of its lost territory.
Jonathan’s candidacy is further helped by the only other visible governorship candidate, Prince Tonye Princewill of Labour Party, who also campaigns for Jonathan.
It will be the greatest upset if Buhari beats Jonathan in Rivers State.
Verdict: Jonathan Will Win
SOUTH-EAST
For Abia, It’s Jonathan All the Way
The ruling PDP in Abia State is in an upbeat mood ahead of tomorrow’s presidential election. In 2011, Jonathan garnered Abia votes so overwhelmingly that his opponent could only pick the crumbs. This time around, Jonathan is certain to take Abia with little or no votes left for other presidential candidates to scramble for. His popularity cuts across party lines.
There is a general feeling that Jonathan has performed well enough to enhance his electoral fortunes in God’s Own State. Abia has been enjoying federal favours since Governor Theodore Orji took the state into the “mainstream” of national politics when he returned to PDP at the tail end of his first term.
The people of Abia are also comfortable with Jonathan in terms of appointments and projects execution. The historical appointment of Gen. Azubuike Ihejirika, an Abia son, as the first man from the South-east to become the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) since the end of the civil war has become a reference point. So also was the conversion of Akanu Ibiam Airport, Enugu, to international status as well as the ongoing Second Niger Bridge and the ongoing total rehabilitation of the Enugu-Port Harcourt dual carriageway. These are projects very dear not only to Abia people but the entire South-east.
While the presidential candidate of the PDP is enjoying popular support, the same cannot be said of Buhari. He is a very hard sell in Abia and even his staunchest supporters here would not indulge in day dreaming about the possibility of Buhari having substantial votes.
The retired general is just not loved in Abia.
Buhari’s poor electoral prospects in Abia are further worsened by the absence of unity and cohesion in the Abia APC, which has been engulfed in a leadership crisis since inception.
Things have gone so bad that the deputy governorship candidate of APC abandoned the party at the eleventh hour and defected to PDP on March 5, 2015.
Verdict: Jonathan Will Win
Ebonyi is Unshakably Behind Jonathan
Despite the crisis bedevilling the ruling PDP in Ebonyi State, Jonathan’s re-election bid has continued to receive massive support.
Jonathan’s ambition is the common meeting point for all the aggrieved members of PDP and other political parties in the state that have adopted the president as their candidate.
Though Governor Martin Elechi and the PDP governorship candidate, Dave Umahi, who is the state deputy governor, are in a political tussle over who should be entrusted with the Goodluck/Sambo 2015 project, the joint ticket has continued to receive widespread acceptability in the state.
As things currently stand in Ebonyi, it is hard to see anyone talk or campaign for any other presidential candidate, except the candidacy of Jonathan. Besides, the internal crisis in the APC, which started from the congresses held last year, has crippled the opposition party in the state. Even at the peak of political campaigns, Buhari’s name hardly featured among the people. Former Governor Sam Egwu and Secretary to the Federal Government, Senator Anyim Pius Anyim, are among the big political weights in the state leading the re-election campaign of Jonathan.
Verdict: Jonathan will win
Enugu Will Swing the President’s Way
Despite his mouth-watering promise to revitalise the Enugu coal industry, Buhari does not seem to have won the hearts of the people of Enugu State, as they are set to once again vote for the ruling PDP. Internal disagreements in the state’s chapter of APC have not helped matters for Buhari either.
At present, the APC governorship candidate in the state, Okey Ezea, is having a running battle with some local party leaders over his alleged inability to lead a strong campaign for the former head of state. Jonathan appears to have found a comfort zone in the South-east and it would be difficult to beat him in any of the five states of the zone. But Enugu State is also special for him with the presence of the governor and many political heavyweights in PDP, including the deputy senate president, Ike Ekweremadu, and the former Vice-President Alex Ekwueme.
Verdict: Jonathan will take the day
Divisions Aside, Anambra Will Deliver to Jonathan
Like in the other South-east states, Buhari’s candidature is not popular in Anambra State. Yet, the state seems to be available to any candidate who makes the most effort, even though the governor is a member of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), which has since adopted Jonathan as its presidential candidate for tomorrow’s election.
This is given the lingering squabbles in PDP, which assumed a graver dimension since the party’s state primaries, and also the disagreements within APGA. APC, on the other hand, seems relatively more united under the former governor of the state and current senator for Anambra Central senatorial district, Dr. Chris Ngige. The squabbles aside, popular sentiments in the state certainly favour Jonathan.
Verdict: Jonathan will win
Imo is Under Jonathan’s Belt In Spite of Okorocha
General Buhari is also not favoured in Imo State, even though the state is governed by Rochas Okorocha who joined the APC when it was formed. But Buhari will try to ride on the popularity of the governor to attempt to make some impact at the polls. On the other hand, Jonathan is certainly the favourite of most voters in the state. His candidature would also be helped by the presence of many PDP bigwigs in the state, including the Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Emeka Ihedioha, who is also the party’s governorship candidate; Senator Ifeanyi Ararume; former Governor Ikedi Ohakim; and Chief Martin Agbaso.
Verdict: Jonathan will win
SOUTH-WEST
With Stomach Infrastructure, Ekiti Will Smile at Jonathan
If the crowd that thronged the venue of their respective presidential rallies in Ekiti were anything to go by, then Jonathan’s handlers in Ekiti State had their work cut out as they attempted to subdue the APC and its popularity in the state. The tumultuous crowd that attended Buhari’s January 24 campaign rally in Ado-Ekiti stunned some leaders of the ruling party, who erroneously thought APC had been subdued with the emergence of Ayo Fayose as governor. But in Nigeria, winning an election transcends the mass turnout at rallies.
The PDP has credible and well-loved politicians in the state, who can perform the magic for Jonathan. The volatile Fayose, an ardent critic of Buhari, defeated Dr. Kayode Fayemi in all the 16 local government areas of the state during the June 2014 governorship election and the political variables that brought about this feat have not changed substantially.
What is worse is that the APC seems be in disarray in Ekiti with the absence of its Chairman, Chief Jide Awe, from the political scene. Awe went underground, probably to avoid being arrested over an alleged murder charge hanging on his neck. The 19 APC lawmakers in the state assembly, led by its embattled Speaker, Hon. Adewale Omirin, have also disappeared for fear of possible attack due to their perceived opposition to Fayose.
The aggregate of these scenarios may affect APC, because leadership is necessary in politics. But the party has taken solace in the support being given by Fayemi who is greatly involved in the Buhari campaign; a member of the House of Representatives and Labour Party chieftain, Hon. Opeyemi Bamidele; and the extra-work being done by members of the National Assembly, who are seeking re-election.
To some extent, the voters seem to be gradually embracing the “Change” mantra of the APC and these may help the party amass the necessary votes for Buhari. But despite all these snags, a large number of the voters still perceive Fayose as a down to earth and generous man, who can be trusted. Aside from this, the PDP has a deep war chest and since money played a critical role in Fayemi’s defeat, Jonathan will likely ride on the crest of PDP’s deep pockets.
Verdict: Jonathan will win
Oyo Could Swing Either Way
One factor that is working for Jonathan in Oyo State today is the surreptitious and open endorsement given to his candidature by four major political parties in the state. Four of the five notable parties in the state, the Accord Party (AP), Labour Party (LP), Social Democratic Party (SDP) and of course the PDP are all working round the clock for Jonathan’s re-election bid.
While the SDP governorship standard-bearer, Seyi Makinde, and the party’s chairman, Mr. Sunday Adelaja, would not proclaim Jonathan in public because of the effect such a pronouncement may have on the fortunes of the party during election, the body language of the party’s supporters shows that the party is working for Jonathan underground.
The scenario is more pronounced in the camps of Accord and Labour Parties, as their standard-bearers – former Governors Rashidi Ladoja and Adebayo Alao-Akala respectively – are not leaving anyone guessing where they stand as far as the two major presidential candidates are concerned. Ladoja was the first to announce that Accord would vote Jonathan and Alao-Akala recently followed suit and both have been quoted variously in the media as supporting Jonathan’s re-election bid.
Another thing going for Jonathan is the much-talked about report of the National Conference which he has promised to implement fully, consequently attracting the support of several elders in the state. Resource allocations to different interest groups and media patronage by the PDP in terms of jingles in virtually the electronic and print media alike have been unmatched since the six-week postponement of the polls announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), have also gone down well.
Though an APC-controlled state, while the state Director of the PDP for Jonathan’s re-election campaign is a well known figure in the person of Minister of State for FCT, Ms Jumoke Akinjide, who has visited virtually all local government areas in the state campaigning for Jonathan, nothing much has been heard from Buhari’s campaign train in the state.
Mr Iyiola Oladokun, a former deputy governor in the state, is perceived as Buhari’s campaign head. However, very little activity has been attributed to him in the media since the campaigns began. There are even speculations that there is no particular campaign coordinator for Buhari in the state based on the fact that different interest groups like Buhari Campaign Organisation, Buhari Support Group and a number of others are all working independently to actualise the dream of the ex-ruler.
The APC, nonetheless, is not giving anything to chance. The party’s strong support base among the Hausa community, youths and a number of elite across the state is remarkable and combining this with the fact that Oyo is an APC-controlled state puts Buhari’s aspiration in good stead.
Verdict: Too Close to Call
Lagos Leans Towards Jonathan, But…
With less than 24 hours to the presidential election, the political environment in Lagos State is already charged. Being the economic nerve centre of the country and the most populous state in the country, it is not surprising that APC and PDP are determined to secure victory in the state. Having been under the control of the opposition party in the past 16 years, Lagos is the stronghold of the APC in the South-west and is the base of some of the key APC leaders, including former Governor Bola Tinubu.
President Jonathan’s outreach to different ethno-cultural and religious groups in the state since the six weeks postponement of the elections is responsible for the tense political environment. The groups the president has reached out to include a faction of Oodua Peoples Congress (OPC), Ndigbo community, the Council of Obas, as well as Arewa community in the state. Apparently, the president’s overtures have already created ripples in the camp of the APC. Also, the fact that the PDP has a strong and popular governorship candidate, Jimi Agbaje, whose supporters have also been mobilising support for the president, has further made the upcoming election a serious contest between the APC and PDP.
Notwithstanding the ethno-cultural and religious dimensions that have gradually emerged in Lagos politics, the political dynamics of Lagos is still predictable taking cognisance of the entrenched structure that the APC and its predecessors (Alliance for Democracy, Action Congress and Action Congress of Nigeria) had established in the last 16 years, a development that may favour Jonathan, as the state traditionally has always voted for a PDP candidate in all the presidential elections since 1999. Besides, with Agbaje’s soaring popularity and with Lagos slipping out of his grasp, Tinubu is likely to rethink his options.
While Buhari enjoys support from the larger percentage of the Hausa community, the elite and the social media, Jonathan enjoys grassroots support.
Verdict: Too close to call
While Ogun Loves Buhari, It’s a Seesaw Battle
In Ogun State, it will be a tough battle between Buhari and Jonathan, even though one of the most vitriolic critics of Jonathan, former President Olusegun Obasanjo, is from the state. The reason is because Ogun State has about five major political parties that include PDP, APC, LP, SDP and Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), and alignments among this parties would shape the outcome of the presidential election in the state.
Even though PDP, which is a major opposition party in the state, has been factionalised, it recently reconciled its aggrieved members at a rally held in Abeokuta. Initially, the division in its fold was based on the fact that the party planned to work against its governorship candidate, Prince Gboyega Isiaka, but work for Jonathan at the presidential poll.
However, the aggrieved members have agreed to put heads together to work for Jonathan and Isiaka in the state with the joint efforts of former Governor Olusegun Osoba’s SDP and the LP which are also working underground for Jonathan’s re-election in the state.
The reconciliation and combined efforts of the three parties may likely give Jonathan more votes in the state at the presidential election. On the other hand, APC governorship candidate in the state, Senator Ibikunle Amosun, who is seeking re-election and has a sterling record of performance, believes his achievements in the last four years would ensure his victory and that of Buhari’s. The governor has embarked on aggressive campaigns in all the local governments for himself as well as canvassing support for Buhari’s presidential ambition.
The APC vice-presidential candidate, Prof YemI Osinbajo, who had served as commissioner in Lagos State hails from Ogun, and that may also count in favour of the party. It is however difficult to make a call on where the pendulum would swing in the election. While PDP is banking on its alliance with SDP and LP, APC is banking on the elite and its supporters who appear to appreciate APC infrastructure programmes.
Verdict: Buhari will win
Aregbesola’s Failure to Pay Salaries, May Blight Buhari’s Seeming Victory
Having emerged victorious in the governorship election last year, Osun has reconfirmed that it is strongly under the grip of the opposition, a fact that had earlier been established in the 2011 presidential election when it was the only South-west state that PDP lost.
Jonathan has personally made visits to the state to rally support for his re-election, meeting with traditional rulers and securing public endorsements from several of them. Though last year’s governorship election may have galvanised the PDP in the state with the Minister of Police Affairs, Jelili Adesiyan, the party’s National Secretary, Professor Wale Oladipo, and its former governorship candidate, Senator Iyiola Omisore, making frantic efforts to mobilise support for Jonathan, the fact is that APC led by Governor Rauf Aregbesola, a grassroots mobiliser, is fully rooted in all the 30 local government areas with strong leaders including two former governors of the state, Senator Isiaka Adeleke and former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola.
Both men were formerly key members of the PDP. Accordingly, Buhari’s popularity in the state has continued to soar. But the governor’s inability to pay salaries, could cost Buhari some votes.
Verdict: Buhari will win
In Ondo, Jonathan Has the Edge
Buhari enjoys the goodwill and sympathy of the masses in Ondo State, even though the state is now governed by a PDP member who defected from the Labour Party. Among the elite, however, lack of funds seems to be hurting APC’s mobilisation drive for Buhari
. The last-minute defection of the deputy governor of the state to APC, may not make much of a difference for Buhari’s chances in the state too.
On the other hand, Jonathan would be riding on the influence of Governor Olusegun Mimiko, who is also the South-west coordinator of PDP presidential campaign organisation. But internal dissensions that followed the governor’s movement into PDP may be a limiting factor for Jonathan in the presidential election.
Verdict: Jonathan will win
NORTH-WEST
Buhari Has the Edge in Kaduna
Despite the fact that the PDP has been in power in Kaduna since 1999, and Vice-President Namadi Sambo hails from the state, its fortunes and influence seem to have dwindled over time following internal wrangling, which led to the defection of some of its prominent members to the APC. Late last month, Sambo was in Kaduna for about four days and held meetings with various groups at the Hassan Katsina House, ahead of the elections. Whether those meetings will swing the tide in favour of Jonathan remains to be seen.
But the current situation on the ground suggests that Buhari has a brighter prospect of winning tomorrow’s election in the state again like he did in 2011. The reasons are not far-fetched. Religion and regional sentiments are the factors that will determine who will win the presidential election in Kaduna. This is because of the stout opposition to the re-election of Jonathan in Kaduna, especially in the two Muslim-dominated senatorial zones – the north and central senatorial zones.
Already, some politicians have succeeded in branding the APC as the party for Muslims and that a good Muslim should vote for Buhari, the presidential candidate of the party.
Buhari is also seen by many ordinary folks in the senatorial zones as the messiah who will address the issues of abject poverty, corruption and injustice. Besides, the campaigns for power shift to the north is also likely to swing things in favour of Buhari.
The predominantly Christian-dominated southern Kaduna senatorial zone had been the stronghold of the PDP since 1999. Indeed Southern Kaduna is the zone that determines the winner of the governorship of the state because of the bloc votes the area has been giving to the PDP since inception of democracy. However it is difficult to say whether the Kaduna South will give Jonathan bloc votes this time around following allegations of marginalisation and discrimination against the people of the area in terms of appointments.
Verdict: Buhari will win
In Sokoto, the Bafarawa Factor is One to Watch
In Sokoto, Saturday’s election is a straight battle between Jonathan and Buhari. Although the PDP in Sokoto is waxing stronger and poses a formidable challenge to the ruling APC ahead of the polls, the truth of the matter is that the mindset of the people is tilted towards Buhari. There is so much emotional attachment to Buhari’s candidacy in the sense that there is a wide perception by the people that his presidency will usher in social justice.
The people of the state see Buhari as a symbol of honesty, coupled with the fact that they share the same cultural and religious affinity with him being a Muslim and a Fulani.
Also, there is the general perception that the people have not felt the impact of any federal government project as much as they are getting from the APC-led state government.
Key supporters of the president are however not leaving any stone unturned in their bid to win the state for Jonathan. The National Security Adviser, Col. Sambo Dasuki, Minister of Health Khaliru Alhassan, and particularly PDP chieftain and former governor Attahiru Bafarawa and state deputy governor Mukhtar Shagari have been campaigning vigorously for the president in Sokoto. Their efforts could see Jonathan garnering up to 40 per cent of the votes.
Verdict: Too close to call
In Zamfara, Mamuda Shinkafi Lights up PDP
In Zamfara, Buhari has a massive following, especially among the masses who see him as a messiah and an upright man. Many people are supporting Buhari in Zamfara not because of the performance of Governor Abdulaziz Yari of the APC but due to the strong belief that he can fix Nigeria. While Yari is campaigning vigorously for Buhari in all the nooks and crannies of the state, PDP in Zamfara has been weakened and fragmented into different camps. However, the emergence of Mamuda Shinkafi as the party’s governorship candidate, has reignited PDP’s chances in the state.
Verdict: Too close to call
Kebbi Looks Good for Buhari
Since the campaigns started, APC in Kebbi State has waxed stronger and received defectors from the PDP in large numbers, despite the fact that Kebbi is a PDP-controlled state. The defection of Senator Muhammad Magoro, Senator Tanko Ayuba and some principal officers of the Kebbi State House of Assembly to the APC has weakened the PDP in the state.
In fact, even the Deputy Governor, Alhaji Ibrahim Khalil Aliyu, though in the PDP, reportedly provides subtle support for the APC. Former Governor Adamu Aliero, Senator Atiku Bagudu and Sani Zoro currently finance the activities of the APC in the state.
Even the activities of PDP leaders in the state such as Minister of Special Duties Kabiru Tanimu, former National Chairman of the PDP, Alhaji Bello Haliru, and Buhari Bala, have not made the desired impact to sway the minds of the people towards supporting Jonathan’s candidacy. It is believed in some quarters that even the Kebbi State Governor, Alhaji Saidu Nasamu Dakingari, is not making any serious effort to sell Jonathan’s candidacy in the state.
Verdict: Buhari will win but Jonathan may get 40 per cent of the votes
Jigawa Will Defy Lamido in Favour of Buhari
Jigawa is one of the PDP-controlled states in the North-west and boasts one of the most vocal governors from the zone, Sule Lamido, supporting President Jonathan’s re-election bid. Though Lamido has been campaigning for the re-election of Jonathan, including publicly and repeatedly faulting the candidature of Buhari, most of Jonathan’s campaign officials are based in Kano with their families and they do not have political influence over the people of Jigawa. As such, the support base of Buhari in the state is very strong.
Like other northern states, religion, regional and ethnic interests are key factors that would determine the outcome of tomorrow’s election. With a predominantly Muslim population, coupled with the agitation for return of power to the north, Buhari is expected to win the election in the state, but that does not suggest that Jonathan would not have the required 25 per cent, as the PDP structures in Jigawa are still very formidable.
Verdict: Buhari will win
Divisions in APC Give Jonathan a Leeway in Kano
Buhari’s chances in the state are predictable due to his wide acceptability in the state, especially among the downtrodden. This is more so as Kano is an APC state. But Buhari is a household name in Kano State, mainly due to his personality and not necessarily because of his party.
Buhari won the state in 2011 even while it was under an ANPP governor. And there are many PDP members in the state who are saying they would vote for him. Conversely, Jonathan’s presence is a rarity in Kano, as his posters are hardly seen, except in the Government Reservation Area (GRA) where some politicians who hold office in his administration live.
Many in the state tend to put the insecurity in the country at the door of the presidency and this has affected Jonathan’s popularity in Kano. The few who have the courage to campaign for the president do so surreptitiously, usually hiding under the state’s PDP governorship candidate, Malam Salihu Sagir Takai.
However, divisions in the APC and Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso’s bid for the Senate could see Jonathan improving his chances and securing more than 25 per cent of the votes.
Verdict: Buhari will win but Jonathan will get 25 per cent of the votes
Katsina is Firmly in Buhari’s Pocket
Buhari is not only well liked in Katsina State, his home state, his presidency is earnestly desired by the people, who had also given him an overwhelming win in 2011, despite the presence of a PDP governor. The state is still governed by PDP, but most people here including non-members of Buhari’s APC would vote for him. Besides, except the governor, most prominent politicians in the state are members of the APC or supporters of its presidential candidate.
Despite having his fellow PDP man as governor of the state, Jonathan’s approval rating is so low here that he would struggle to secure 25 per cent of the votes in the presidential election.
Verdict: Buhari will win overwhelmingly
NORTH-EAST
Adamawa Will be Close but Jonathan Will Take the Day
The likely scenario in Adamawa is still dicey mainly due to the fact that there are two major political parties – APC and PDP — that have firmly registered their presence in the state.
PDP registered its presence as far back as 1998, winning the presidential, governorship, House of Assembly and National Assembly elections. However, with the merger of some opposition parties that metamorphosed into APC last year, PDP has become a party confronted by stiff opposition. The noticeable fractures in the party after the last state primaries were held in Abuja and the impact it could have on the chances of the party in the upcoming elections prompted Jonathan to hold a peace meeting with the leaders of PDP in Yola, penultimate week.
The reverse is however the case with the APC that held all its primaries elections in Adamawa peacefully and the party has continued to remain one big, strong family. How far PDP can reconcile its leaders in the state, especially Professor Jibril Amiinu, Ambassador Hassan Adamu, Ambassador Wilberforce Juta, Paul Wampana, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur and a host of others before tomorrow’s election would go a long way in determining whether the pendulum of victory will swing to its side.
Although chances are that the two presidential candidates will win support across religious lines, however if the voting patterns were to follow religious lines, a number of Christian eligible voters would still be hiding in the mountains in the northern parts of the state following the activities of Boko Haram. Except concrete arrangements are made to allow those categories of voters to participate fully in the exercise, this may impact substantially on Jonathan’s chances in the state.
Besides, a sizeable number of the displaced persons have either lost their PVCs or are disenchanted with the Jonathan-led government over the security situation in their area. But the recent gains recorded by the military which has successfully pushed out the terrorists from occupied Adamawa communities in the last few weeks, may have also changed the perception about Jonathan
Verdict: Jonathan will win
Buhari’s Broom Will Sweep the Votes in Bauchi
PDP and APC are the major political parties in Bauchi State. PDP however has been in power since the emergence of the current democratic dispensation in 1999. The party is deeply rooted in all the nooks and crannies of the 20 local government areas of the state and is in control of the 20 local government areas, even as it also has over 98 per cent of the members in the state House of Assembly as well as the three senators and majority of the members of the House of Representatives from the state.
Though PDP has all the resources and political machinery to deploy to its advantage, for a long time, the party has been factionalised as its key leaders in the state — the National Chairman of PDP and former governor, Ahmadu Adamu Mu’azu, FCT Minister, Senator Bala Mohammed, and incumbent Governor Isa Yuguda – are engaged in a contest for political supremacy, a development which has made it impossible for the party to present a common front in its campaign for Jonathan’s re-election.
Also, like many northern states, religion and ethnic sentiments are the major factors that will determine who wins the presidential election in the state. Just like in other core northern states, there is stiff opposition to Jonathan, not because of non-performance but on the basis of religion and the agitation for the return of power to the north.
In this respect, politicians have succeeded in branding the APC a party for Muslims and have also used their campaign rallies to call on the people to vote for “mai sallah”, which enjoins good Muslims to vote for Buhari. During Jonathan’s campaign visit to the state in January, his convoy was pelted both along the road and at the campaign ground by youths chanting “Sai Buhari.”
The emergence of the APC has also provided an alternative platform for aggrieved members of the PDP who may not mind rocking the boat to scuttle the chances of the party, a development that has further given Buhari the edge over Jonathan.
Verdict: Like in 2011, Buhari will win but Jonathan will have a strong showing
Gombe Could Buck the Trend
In Gombe, PDP has taken absolute control of the state. Since 2003 when it took over the seat of power from the Alhaji Abubakar Hashidu-led All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), PDP has established it roots in the state.
Though PDP has continued to grow in strength in the state with the leader of the party and the governor, Alhaji Ibrahim Hassan Dankwambo, having a firm grip on the party, the presidential election is a direct battle between his party and APC.
Like other core northern states, the factors that will determine the presidential election are religion, regional and ethnic sentiments
