If you think President Goodluck
Jonathan has no plan or strategy on how to win the 2015 presidential election
you are dead wrong. I just finished reading a document produced by Goodluck
Jonathan’s political advisers and strategists.
Jonathan has no plan or strategy on how to win the 2015 presidential election
you are dead wrong. I just finished reading a document produced by Goodluck
Jonathan’s political advisers and strategists.
The title of the document is
“2013-2015: Political power and governance road map.” It is a carefully written
document that identified and analyzed the strengths and weaknesses of President
Jonathan, and his chances of winning the 2015 presidential election, if he
decides to contest. It is the good, the bad and the ugly of how Jonathan and
his team will approach 2015.
“2013-2015: Political power and governance road map.” It is a carefully written
document that identified and analyzed the strengths and weaknesses of President
Jonathan, and his chances of winning the 2015 presidential election, if he
decides to contest. It is the good, the bad and the ugly of how Jonathan and
his team will approach 2015.
In the introduction, authors of the
document acknowledged that a new political order has emerged which seriously
pose a threat to the political order created by Jonathan and his team.
According to the document, “The public perception of government, the tension
and contradictions within the PDP, extremist insurgencies and grave national
security concerns, and desperation by the opposition parties to cobble together
a mega-party are concrete indications of the struggle between an old and a
newly constituted national power arrangement.”
document acknowledged that a new political order has emerged which seriously
pose a threat to the political order created by Jonathan and his team.
According to the document, “The public perception of government, the tension
and contradictions within the PDP, extremist insurgencies and grave national
security concerns, and desperation by the opposition parties to cobble together
a mega-party are concrete indications of the struggle between an old and a
newly constituted national power arrangement.”
The authors alleged that “there is
sufficient evidence that attests to a well-oiled grand strategy to diminish the
person of Mr President and the institution of the presidency, sabotage and
impede the efficient execution of public policies, distract and compromise key
institutions, and ensure a chaotic and unpredictable outcome in the 2015
general elections. Because these forces are critically entrenched in the key
organs of the PDP, in the NASS, among the ranks of the party’s governors, in
the media, within dominant ethnic and regional political formations and violent
non-state actors, this struggle will become more acute and intense as the
nation plots its political graph and trajectory to the 2015 general elections.”
The document started with a
Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis of the person
of President Jonathan and the “new national power center he has constructed.”
The following is directly from the document.
Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis of the person
of President Jonathan and the “new national power center he has constructed.”
The following is directly from the document.
Strengths
•Power of incumbency and utilization of governance machinery, especially the
careful and legal deployment of its propaganda and coercive apparatuses
•Power of incumbency and utilization of governance machinery, especially the
careful and legal deployment of its propaganda and coercive apparatuses
•Secure financial resources base and
leveraging on strategic media assets
leveraging on strategic media assets
•Formidable political apparatus—a
reformed, disciplined and tightly controlled PDP—with significant presence in
all the 36 states and dominant control over 23 states
reformed, disciplined and tightly controlled PDP—with significant presence in
all the 36 states and dominant control over 23 states
•Deep-rooted, nation-wide support structures
in the shape of GSG, N2G and literally speaking, hundreds of youth, women and
regional affiliates controlled and supervised by the more dominant support
structures
in the shape of GSG, N2G and literally speaking, hundreds of youth, women and
regional affiliates controlled and supervised by the more dominant support
structures
•Effective and efficient
implementation of the transformation agenda in critical national sectors
implementation of the transformation agenda in critical national sectors
•High personal likeability rating
which has to be further strengthened and deepened
which has to be further strengthened and deepened
•When chips are down immense support
will be secured from the National Council of State by ex-leaders who value
continuity and order over instability and chaos
will be secured from the National Council of State by ex-leaders who value
continuity and order over instability and chaos
Weaknesses
•A less than forceful Presidential presence and infective deployment and
application of presidential power
•A less than forceful Presidential presence and infective deployment and
application of presidential power
•The perceived appropriation of
presidential advocacy space by exuberant partisans and fanatical supporters who
project a wrong image of the presidency as a regional agenda. This situation
tends to alienate moderate political forces across the country whose sense of
co-ownership of the presidency appears diminished
presidential advocacy space by exuberant partisans and fanatical supporters who
project a wrong image of the presidency as a regional agenda. This situation
tends to alienate moderate political forces across the country whose sense of
co-ownership of the presidency appears diminished
•A perceived sense of distance
between the Presidency and the PDP that has opened the space for internal
dissention and outright rebellion by party stalwarts. This sense of disinterest
and disengagement has engendered a culture of apology among Presidential
spokespersons whenever matters connecting Mr President and the party appear on
the public sphere
between the Presidency and the PDP that has opened the space for internal
dissention and outright rebellion by party stalwarts. This sense of disinterest
and disengagement has engendered a culture of apology among Presidential
spokespersons whenever matters connecting Mr President and the party appear on
the public sphere
•Following on the above, the reality
of Mr President being the leaders of the nation and the LEADER OF THE PARTY is
not sufficiently grounded
of Mr President being the leaders of the nation and the LEADER OF THE PARTY is
not sufficiently grounded
•A technocratic cabinet that is not
fully politically engaged, especially in media advocacy and community-wide
outreach programmes. This unhelpful situation out burdens a handful regime
insiders in their constant defense of The Presidency and the Transformation
agenda
fully politically engaged, especially in media advocacy and community-wide
outreach programmes. This unhelpful situation out burdens a handful regime
insiders in their constant defense of The Presidency and the Transformation
agenda
•A presidential communication
strategy that is weak on proactive propaganda and rapid response
strategy that is weak on proactive propaganda and rapid response
•Inability of Presidential power
strategists to manage the relationship between The Presidency and the NASS to
the degree that the later, particularly the HOR, which is dominated by the PDP,
appears as an outfit and mouthpiece of the opposition
strategists to manage the relationship between The Presidency and the NASS to
the degree that the later, particularly the HOR, which is dominated by the PDP,
appears as an outfit and mouthpiece of the opposition
•Problematic relationship between
the Presidency and some former heads of State when, in actuality, they should
constitute the bedrock of his support
the Presidency and some former heads of State when, in actuality, they should
constitute the bedrock of his support
Opportunities
•Exploiting the current fractured state of the NGF for maximum political
advantage by strengthening the co-operative faction and sustaining the pressure
on recalcitrant PDP governors
•Exploiting the current fractured state of the NGF for maximum political
advantage by strengthening the co-operative faction and sustaining the pressure
on recalcitrant PDP governors
•Exploiting the opportunities
inherent in the putative fracturing of the Northern Governors’ Forum by
strengthening co-operative governors and sustaining pressure, directly and
through different front organizations, on the recalcitrant governors
inherent in the putative fracturing of the Northern Governors’ Forum by
strengthening co-operative governors and sustaining pressure, directly and
through different front organizations, on the recalcitrant governors
•Playing on the political ambitions
of regional champions, especially in the North, to the degree and extent that
no unanimity of political purpose and cohesive agenda is ever achieved
of regional champions, especially in the North, to the degree and extent that
no unanimity of political purpose and cohesive agenda is ever achieved
•The APC may appear as a formidable
threat initially but substantive opportunities will abound when ambitions and
egos clash among its principal promoters. Strategic planning should factor in
the scenario in the designing of intervention blueprint
threat initially but substantive opportunities will abound when ambitions and
egos clash among its principal promoters. Strategic planning should factor in
the scenario in the designing of intervention blueprint
•Exploiting the immense public
opinion opportunities in the current war against terror in the North,
especially given the steady successes thus far recorded by the NSA, and the
military high command through the JTF
opinion opportunities in the current war against terror in the North,
especially given the steady successes thus far recorded by the NSA, and the
military high command through the JTF
•Utilizing the social and economic
empowering and inclusive space provided by SURE-P, particularly its integrated
community empowerment schemes, to advertise and show case the populist and
pro-people orientation of the government
empowering and inclusive space provided by SURE-P, particularly its integrated
community empowerment schemes, to advertise and show case the populist and
pro-people orientation of the government
Threats
There are sufficient grounds to believe that the NASS continues to pose a
threat to the effective exercise of Presidential power in the areas of
budget-making processes and the on-going amendments of the constitution with
specific reference to devolution of power and tenure of elected officials
There are sufficient grounds to believe that the NASS continues to pose a
threat to the effective exercise of Presidential power in the areas of
budget-making processes and the on-going amendments of the constitution with
specific reference to devolution of power and tenure of elected officials
•Formidable forces in both the NGF
and the NNGF continue to pose significant threat to the political calculations
and choices open to Mr President
and the NNGF continue to pose significant threat to the political calculations
and choices open to Mr President
•Regional alliances among dominant
ethnic blocks may constitute a threat to the political choices open to Mr
President
ethnic blocks may constitute a threat to the political choices open to Mr
President
•If the APC does not implode along
the way, it will constitute a real threat to the PDP and Mr President
the way, it will constitute a real threat to the PDP and Mr President
•Extremist insurgencies in the North
and the burgeoning oil theft in the Niger Delta are already sources of concern
and worry; the way and manner these issues are dealt with will determine the
degree to which they will pose a threat down the line
and the burgeoning oil theft in the Niger Delta are already sources of concern
and worry; the way and manner these issues are dealt with will determine the
degree to which they will pose a threat down the line
•Regrettably, the current,
crisis-ridden state of the PDP poses significant threat to the realization of
the party’s political ambition in 2015, including that of Mr President.
crisis-ridden state of the PDP poses significant threat to the realization of
the party’s political ambition in 2015, including that of Mr President.
The SWOT analysis above is just a
small excerpt from the document. The document was written after the New PDP was
created but before the G5 and members of House of Representatives defected to
APC. The rest of the document is an in-depth analysis of what the PDP and
President Jonathan should do to win the 2015 elections. This include changing perception
of Nigerians through propaganda, establishment of a political intelligence
unit, reforming PDP, fund mobilization strategies, causing political division
in the North and South West, appointing politicians with grassroots support as
ministers, deploying SURE-P for political purposes, using the civil society
organizations and professional organizations, increasing the number of
registered voters in South-South, North-central and South-East, and reducing
the number of voters in the North and South West, etc.
small excerpt from the document. The document was written after the New PDP was
created but before the G5 and members of House of Representatives defected to
APC. The rest of the document is an in-depth analysis of what the PDP and
President Jonathan should do to win the 2015 elections. This include changing perception
of Nigerians through propaganda, establishment of a political intelligence
unit, reforming PDP, fund mobilization strategies, causing political division
in the North and South West, appointing politicians with grassroots support as
ministers, deploying SURE-P for political purposes, using the civil society
organizations and professional organizations, increasing the number of
registered voters in South-South, North-central and South-East, and reducing
the number of voters in the North and South West, etc.
Mr. Gamawa is a doctoral candidate
in Law at Harvard University.
in Law at Harvard University.
Source: Premium Times
