With the conclusion of the national conventions of the Democratic and the Republican parties, the coast is now clear for the crucial presidential election in November, barely two months away. Barack Obama, the incumbent President and candidate of the Democratic Party will slug it out with his Republican rival, Mitt Romney, in a race many predict will be close. While some argue that he deserves re-election based on his accomplishments, others think he has not handled the economy well, especially with unemployment rate at 8 per cent – no sitting US president since World War II has been re-elected with unemployment rate above 7.2 per cent. RALIAT AHMED- YUSUF writes.
Four years ago, Obama wowed everyone with his oratorical prowess, not only in his victory acceptance speech but his brilliantly planned and well executed campaign programme with slogans such as ‘yes we can’ and ‘hope and change’ inspiring and rousing speeches which won the hearts of millions of Americans that eventually brought him to power.
Just like yesterday, another election is around the corner, precipitating even more political anxiety and unpredictability in the process.
President Barack Obama’s first four-year term is coming to an end and it seems like yesterday that he made history by being the first African – American to be president after he defeated Republican rival, John McCain. His victory over Republican Senator John McCain was aided in part by public perceptions that Republican policies had contributed in no small way to the economic tumble that now stares American on its face.
Obama’s 2008 campaign was hinged on change. Even though his first term has been tough, many believe he has been able to record some historic achievements. But it is yet to be seen if he can convince Americans again in the next election and rewrite the history books all over again.
The US economy has struggled exceedingly since Obama took office amid one of the worst economic recessions in decades: job growth has been weak and the US unemployment rate has remained over 8%. But even at that, Obama can still keep his head high and confidently point at the 2009 Economic Stimulus Package, the historic healthcare overhaul as well as the Financial Reform bills as some of the highpoints of his administration’s effort to reorganise the economy and bring succour to the middle class.
The worry at the moment is that President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign is coming at a time of great national economic distress so much so that national polls results clearly show him closely tied with Republican challenger Mitt Romney.
According to opinion polls Obama’s favorable vs. unfavorable ratings, 52-45 percent, are back in the positive zone, +7 percentage points, after dipping below the waterline last week, 47-49 percent. This leapfrogging has however been attributed to the post-convention boost, which may not tarry till the election proper. Romney, at 44-49 percent, remains underwater, for the 12th time out of 14 ABC/Post favorability polls this year. Mitt Romney trails in popularity, albeit with a number near his own high.
Consistent with a larger ABC/Post political poll released few days ago, Obama has improved in his own party, with his popularity among Democrats matching his high for this election, 89 percent. He’s at a new high among lower- and lower-middle income adults, and has moved back to positive ratings among women, 53-44 percent, after dipping negative among women, a first for Obama, immediately following the Republican convention.
Four years on, the question on the lips of many is whether Americans are better off under Obama.
There are countless ways to measure progress, and Obama’s performance will look better compared to the Bush’s regime where the economy was at its lowest point towards the end of his tenure than some snapshot of figures from an earlier, healthier part of Bush’s presidency. What may never be known is what would have happened if Obama hadn’t taken the actions he did with bailout plans and stimulus packages.
What President Obama has as a big advantage, according to many, may very well be the mediocrity of his opponent. Mitt Romney who seems to be completely out of touch with the average American. He is his party’s standard-bearer, and as such automatically enjoys substantial support. But that seems to be the only point in his favor. He seems not to be in tune with the situation of an average American especially due to his gaffe-driven speeches. Among them are:
1- “It’s not worth moving heaven and earth, spending billions of dollars just trying to catch one person.” —Mitt Romney, speaking in 2007 about killing Osama bin Laden.
2-”I’ll take a lot of credit for the fact that this industry’s come back.” –Mitt Romney on the American auto industry, despite having written a New York Times op-ed in 2008 titled “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt,” in which he said if GM, Ford and Chrysler got a government bailout “you can kiss the American automotive industry goodbye”.
3- “I should tell my story. I’m also unemployed.” —Mitt Romney, speaking in 2011 to unemployed people in Florida. Romney’s net worth is over $200 million.
4- I’m not concerned about the very poor. We have a safety net there.” —Mitt Romney (January 2012)
For a man said to be worth $200m, some of his comments seem to be out of tune with the ordinary Americans whose votes will count and do not forget things in a hurry.
Obama tried to highlight those flaws, criticising Romney’s devotion to millionaire tax breaks and ridiculing his foreign-policy. In Obama’s campaigns, he conveys a sense of leadership that Romney does not. That may, in the end, make all the difference and he may after all be on the threshold of another history come November.
Mr Romney kept up his campaign’s focus on lambasting the president’s handling of the economy, especially in the area of job creation. But President Obama agreed that by now,America should be at 5.4% unemployment but instead it is at about 8% and there is need to create more jobs. “Had his policies worked as he thought they would be nine million more Americans working,” Mr Romney said at a campaign rally in Iowa.
Despite this criticism, President Obama has one thing going for him: voters seem much to like him personally, and many remain loyal to him even though they score him low marks for his handling of the economy.
Another advantage for Obama is the latest fund-raising figures which showed that his campaign had out-raised Mr Romney by raking in $114m in August, up sharply from the $75m raised in July.
From a recent New York Times estimate, President Obama probably has 237 electoral votes in the bag, 185 from states with solid support plus 52 from states leaning strongly towards him while Romney has only 206 assured electoral votes (158 from solid states plus 48 leaning towards him). Of the remaining 95 electoral votes in the battleground states, Obama needs to win only 33 to become president, from the look of things he is very likely to acheiveit. Contender Romney needs to win 64 of the remaining 95 electoral college votes which is going to be a difficult task.
From the way the campaign is going, if Obama’s team can convince his 2008 supporters to flood back to the polls this November, while also persuading undecided voters that Mr. Romney does not have their interests at heart owing to his campaign gaffes, he might just win a second time thereby rewriting the history of America again by becoming the first black American president to win a second term in office.
